Daily Oil Chart 5 August 2009
Yesterday’s limited move in daily oil prices came against the backdrop of somewhat subdued equity markets, a modest strengthening of the US Dollar and a degree of profit taking as the oil market now looks forward to today’s crude oil inventories, ADP numbers and tomorrow’s ECB rate decision. As any, or all, of these will impact both the equity and currency markets there will be a consequent spillover into the energy complex. Technically the daily oil price chart is now giving us some strong bullish signals, particularly from the 9 and 14 day moving averages which have now crossed above the 40 day moving average. In addition yesterday’s deep shadow to the daily candle would suggest that oil bulls are still firmly in control and that we should expect a push higher in due course, particularly as we now appear to have penetrated much of the resistance in place in the $68 to $71 price region, which should now provide a platform for a move higher. However, for complete confidence in an attack at the $75 per barrel price handle we should wait for some clear water to appear before entering into any longer term trend trades. Overall crude oil prices ended the day at $71.77 per barrel, just shy of the high of the day which was at $72.10 per barrel.
The short term is bullish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.
WTI
Support: 68.78 Resistance: 72.35
Support: 62.79 Resistance: 67.45
Support: 59.47 Resistance: 62.54
API reported on Tuesday 1.5m drop in oil inventories; a 2.1m increase in gasoline stocks; and a 1m drop in distillate inventories. Refinery capacity was seen at 82.6%.
DOE Forecast for Today
+0.5 -1.4 +0.9 -0.4
Crude Inventory (+0.5)
Gasoline (-1.4)
Distillates (+0.9)
Capacity: (-0.4% to 82.6%)
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