Oil Prices - Daily Candle Chart WTI 5th March 2009
Daily oil prices enjoyed a big surge yesterday gaining 3.85 dollars or more than 8% for the day and this significant move took the oil price to a high of $45.80, last seen on 27th of January. The chart shows the 14 day moving average crossing above the 40 day moving average which is a bullish signal and we have seen an up move from the 12th February, but we need a break of the first major resistance at $45.58 (high of 26th Jan) for the bullish trend to continue.
The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bearish.
WTI:
Support: $41.40 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 27/01/09)
Support: $40.48 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $47.00 (high of 23/01/09)
Support: $40.25 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $45.80 (yesterday’s high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $44.38 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $48.22 (high of 10/02/09)
Support: $43.35 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 06/02/09)
Support: $41.60 (low of 03/03/09) Resistance: $46.54 (yesterday’s high)
Summary:
A strong recovery in the Dow and weakness in the US dollar were initially the main drivers pushing crude oil prices significantly higher yesterday. Later in the day, the weekly EIA report was perceived as supportive by many analysts with surprise draws of 0.7 mb in crude stocks as opposed to an expected increase of 0.9 mb which only exacerbated the upward move. The final factor in this string of bullish factors was the news from China which has stated that it will massively increase investment to boost the economy, potentially needing huge supplies of fuel. having broken above all three moving averages we now need to see this momentum sustained, with a move up and through the consolidation period of the last few weeks. If this happens then we could see oil prices move back above $50 and beyond in the short to medium term. Failure at this level will see a return back into the sideways pattern of the last few months.
DOE Stock Figures (change in millions bbls)
Crude -0.76 (+0.9) Gasoline +0.17 (-1.0) Distillate +1.66 (-1.4)
Leave a Reply