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Oil Prices Today – 16th March 2009

Oil Prices Today - 16th March 2009

Oil Prices Today - 16th March 2009

Initially going higher crude oil prices  eventually declined losing 91 cents to settle just above the low of the day. Still the chart shows the oil price above all moving averages and on the upside the high of last week at $48.80 remains the next major challenge. Technically, the market failing to break and hold above that level could translate in a flip to the downside for retesting the lows around $33.00 mark, with the last few days candles suggesting a short term reversal, and looking very “toppy”, which may translate into a fall in oil prices today.  So with no major change in the overall outlook, the picture points to a sideways consolidation despite last weeks bullish momentum. The COT index for oil is showing a similar picture although with a very low reading this is starting to suggest a longer term bullish move is likely based on the commercial futures positions.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support:    $45.21 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $50.49 (high of 06/01/09)

Support:    $44.24 (14 day moving average)                        Resistance: $48.80 (high of 09/03/09)

Support:    $43.59 (low of 06/03/09)                              Resistance: $48.13 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $44.13 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $46.63 (high of 26/02/09)

Support:    $43.61 (low of 10/03/09)                              Resistance: $46.36 (Friday’s high)

Support:    $43.07 (low of 09/03/09)                              Resistance: $45.77 (high of 10/03/09)

Summary:

Friday’s crude oil performance indicated the positioning process ahead of Sunday’s OPEC meeting. The initial rise favoured a potential cut but that was quickly dismissed by some oil ministers in their usual pre meeting hype with the emphasis rather on compliance. Indeed that was the case yesterday, with OPEC agreeing to maintain the current production levels, concerned that another cut ‘would risk increasing energy costs in the worst crises for six decades’. As a consequence oil prices today opened significantly lower early this morning but near term direction in the energy complex is expected to remain closely linked to the global equity markets.