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Daily Oil Prices – WTI Crude Oil Chart 21st April 2009

Daily Oil Prices - Oil Chart 21st April 2009

Yesterday’s daily oil prices were unable to ignore a markedly stronger US dollar and sharp decline in the Dow Jones as investors worried once again about the banking sector.  Matters were not helped by a rumour of a suspect blog purporting to have the stress test results for the banks.  In fact these are not due for release until early May.  These factors combined with mounting evidence of falling demand all added pressure to the price of crude oil and we finally saw a dramatic breakout from the pennant of the last few weeks with a wide spread down bar over a $4 range, with the close of the day finishing well below the 40 day moving average.  However, following this morning’s open I would advocate extreme caution as prices have opened with a significant gap up of over $2 bouncing back into the pennant once again, an extremely unusual move and one which certainly fails to confirm the breakout, with prices so far today trading back above the 40 day moving average, no doubt trapping many traders on the short side.

Later today we have the API figures which analysts expect to show a further increase with crude oil stocks up by 3m barrels, but gasoline stocks down by 860,000 barrels, distillates down by 1.25m and refinery capacity up 1.05 to 81%.  In addition the May 09 contract is coming under more selling pressure today, as oil traders continue to roll oil futures contracts ahead of today’s expiry and speculation over the possible lack of further OPEC reductions when they meet at the end of May, which is all putting pressure on the price curve moving forward. For the latest oil prices just follow the link here.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $48.18 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $53.21 (high of 17/04/09)

Support:    $47.71 (low of 18/03/09)                              Resistance: $52.41 (yesterday’s high)

Support:    $47.21 (low of 17/04/09)                              Resistance: $49.98 (40 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $49.60 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $53.59 (high of 08/04/09)

Support:    $48.59 (low of 02/04/09)                              Resistance: $53.18 (high of 07/04/09)

Support:    $47.47 (low of 31/03/09)                              Resistance: $51.92 (yesterday’s high)