Home » Daily Oil Prices » Daily Oil Prices – Trade Spot Oil 29th April 2009

Daily Oil Prices – Trade Spot Oil 29th April 2009

Trade Spot Oil - WTI Daily Oil Chart 29th April 2009

Trade Spot Oil - WTI Daily Oil Chart 29th April 2009

Yesterday’s API (Amerian Petroleum Institute) data reported a 4.6 million barrel build in oil inventories, a 2.6 million barrel draw on gasoline stockpiles and a 1.6 million barrel increase in distillate inventories with refining capacity estimated at 81.5%.  US oil stocks are now at 370.6 million barrels, the highest since September 1990 when the stockpile reached 391.9 million barrels in July, the highest reported level since at least 1982.  Today’s EIA data set is also expected to show an increase for the 8th straight week and analysts estimate an average increase to the stockpile of 2.2 million barrels, while gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 200k barrels and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel are expected to increase by 700k barrels.  Analysts also expect refining capacity to rise by 0.1% to 83.5% of capacity.

All this bearish fundamental data and worries about the effect that swine flu could have on any recovery in the economic downturn coupled with a negative impact on the US driving season have all failed to dampen the oil price which seems to be impervious to all the bad news and appears remarkably resilient.   As outlined in yesterday’s market commentary we did indeed see a re-run of Monday’s price action with an initial fall followed by a later rally in daily oil prices which whilst ending the day down, closed above both the 9 and 40 day moving averages, suggesting once again that there is a bullish element underlying current price action, and indeed in early trading  WTI crude oil prices have broken back above the psychological $50 per barrel once again.  The fundamental news due out later both for EIA oil stats, US Advance GDP and FOMC rate statement may all have a major impact on being able to trade spot oil today and this morning’s price action may simply be a short squeeze.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $48.57 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $51.75 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $47.73 (low of 22/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.20 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $46.73 (low of 21/04/09)                              Resistance: $50.16 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $48.88 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $52.09 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $48.40 (low of 27/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.19 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $47.47 (low of 31/03/09)                              Resistance: $50.42 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude +2.2      Distillates +0.7    Gasoline -0.2