Daily Oil Price Chart For WTI Crude Oil Prices 15th June 2009
Friday’s retracement in crude oil prices did not come as a great surprise given the extent of the recent rally in the price of oil which has seen daily oil prices rise by 120% since mid February, and even an intra day dip to $70.82 was taken as an opportunity to buy back into the oil market, merely confirming that the oil futures curve is, once again, pointing decisively higher. Whilst this push higher in daily oil prices appears totally at odds with oil market fundamentals, which tend to focus on the problems of the Western economies, they do not take into account the relative strength of the BRIC economies which is where the demand for oil is likely to come. From a technical perspective Friday’s candle provided a temporary pause point in the headlong rush higher, ending the day 31 cents higher to close at $72.20 per barrel and, even the low of the day on the lower wick failed to come close to a bounce off the 9 day moving average suggesting that we have plenty of clear water for any short term reversal triggered by profit taking or a strengthening US dollar. With all three moving averages pointing firmly higher and with no signals on the oil chart that this rally in daily prices is likely to end soon, we must therefore assume that the bullish trend remains firmly in place and continue to look for trend trading opportunities on any downward dip. My short term target remains at $75 per barrel as outlined at the recent OPEC meeting.
The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is sideways.
WTI:
Support: $70.82 (Friday’s low) Resistance: $74.28 (high of 17/10/08)
Support: $70.51 (low of 10/06/09) Resistance: $73.23 (high of 11/06/09)
Support: $70.00 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $72.60 (Friday’s high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $69.99 (Friday’s low) Resistance: $73.29 (high of 21/10/08)
Support: $69.16 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $72.27 (high of 11/06/09)
Support: $68.24 (low of 09/06/09) Resistance: $71.64 (Friday’s high)
[...] this is far from a certainty. In many ways the future of the US dollar is inextricably linked to crude oil prices and the performance of the S&P 500, the former of which shows little sign of reversing its [...]