WTI Daily Crude Oil Prices - January 27th 2009
Fresh technical buying ensued yesterday taking WTI daily oil prices to new short term highs due to the chart strength mentioned in yesterdays post before retracing back to previous days levels. With the 9 day moving average approaching the 14 potentially giving an additional buy signal, and the current price activity still above the 40 day, the patterns are giving plenty of support to the bulls for daily crude oil prices moving forward. There is a possibility however of further retracement down to the 40 day moving average whilst still maintaining the bullish short term view.
The short term trend is up while the medium and the long term trends are bearish.
WTI ( West Texas Intermediate):
Support: $45.08 (high of 22/01/09) Resistance: $50.04 (high of 15/12/08)
Support: $43.22 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $49.06 (high of 07/01/09)
Support: $41.40 (low of 23/01/09) Resistance: $48.58 (yesterdays high)
OIL (Brent Crude Oil London):
Support: $46.64 (high of 22/01/09) Resistance: $49.96 (high of 15/12/08)
Support: $45.43 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $49.65 (yesterdays high)
Support: $44.65 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $48.61 (high of 23/01/09)
Summary:
In a market fairly devoid of any major direct fundamental news the sentiment appears to have changed for the time being for crude oil prices. Fresh highs were made with the help of a weaker dollar and stronger equity markets but these correlations of late have been very fragile and it appears that traders are happier to enter (somewhat tentatively) into long positions on oil again. The $80 plus move in gold may also have provided confidence to the longs with oil also holding a safe haven status premium in traders minds.
Hi Anne
Tentative steps on Twitter! I am curious about your view of Friday night oil trading. Do you loosly interpret it as a forshadow of the trading for the first half of the following week And will you look at the COT data to support?
Regards
June
Hi June,
Many thanks for your comment and well done with getting onto Twitter – it does take some getting used to, but is a great way of keeping up with the news, particularly in the trading environment. To answer your question, in broad terms the answer is yes, since the sentiment doesn’t change greatly, unless there is major fundamental or political news that “shakes the foundations” – as I’m sure you know many oil traders square off positions at the weekend so they are not exposed. Primarily I am a technical trader and therefore tend to use the fundamentals as guidance. I do use the COT report for sentiment and momentum, and am in the process of updating the site so that I can update it weekly with meaningful data which I hope will be useful for everyone. I will be providing this free so I will Twitter when it is ready ( should be in the next week or so ) – all best wishes and many thanks for your comment – regards Anna