Daily Candle Chart - WTI Oil Prices 4th March 2009
After a big slump on Monday, we saw a comeback in crude oil prices yesterday with a gain of $1.92 within a range of 2.61 dollars. As you can see from the chart the 9 day moving average crossed above the 40 day moving average and the market is now above all these indicators giving us two bullish signals. But only a convincing break on either side of the predicted $33.20 – $50.00 range can put an end to more sideways movements. Technically the longer the move within range the more powerful the eventual breakout will be.
The short and medium term trends are sideways while the long term trend is bearish.
WTI:
Support: $39.45 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $44.13 (high of 02/03/09)
Support: $39.39 (low of 25/02/09) Resistance: $42.82 (high of 25/02/09)
Support: $39.18 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $42.06 (yesterday’s high)
OIL (BRENT):
Support: $41.60 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $45.65 (high of 02/03/09)
Support: $40.43 (low of 24/02/09) Resistance: $44.38 (40 day moving average)
Support: $39.78 (low of 20/02/09) Resistance: $44.10 (yesterday’s high)
Summary:
Daily oil prices managed a nice rally yesterday offsetting part of the previous sharp decline which was somewhat expected, and interpreted by analysts as more of a price consolidation, than anything else. Today’s EIA report should give some extra hints of where oil prices could go but any bullish impact could easily be erased later in the week should the stock markets continue to head south. A renewed strengthening in the US dollar is bound to add extra pressure on the energy complex at some point. So on the short term a string of economic data releases look set to remain the main influence in the energy complex.
DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)
Crude +0.9 Distillates -1.4 Gasoline -1.0
