Crude Oil Chart 11 March 2010

Daily oil prices continued to push higher yesterday closing the trading session with a narrow spread up candle but with a weak bearish shadow to the upper body as prices continue to flirt with the $82.50 price handle.  The key point to note from yesterday’s oil trading session is the strong support currently being offered by the 9 day moving average which is providing a short term platform to the present rally which is generally an excellent positive trending signal.  In conjunction with the 14 day moving average both of these technical indicators are suggesting that the rally is ready to move higher once again but until we see a break and hold above the previous top of early January this cannot be guaranteed.  Overall the WTI contract closed the oil trading session at $82.00 having traded between a high of $83.03 and low of $80.81.  Brent closed at $80.42 having traded between a high of $81.46 and low of $79.22.

Yesterday’s crude oil inventory data confirmed a 1.4m build in  oil stocks, a 2.9m fall in gasoline and a 2.2m fall in distillates.  Comparisons with this time last year are interesting as crude oil stocks are almost 4% less but both gasoline and distillates are up by 6% and 3% respectively.

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Oil News :

BP strikes deal with Brazil

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Crude Oil Chart 18 Feb 2010

An extremely quiet day for crude oil trading yesterday which closed the session as a narrow doji cross perched on the 40 day moving average which failed to follow through on the strong momentum created in Tuesday’s upwards surge.   Whilst the overall picture remains mildly bullish the key to any longer term rally remains the deep resistance between the $76.50 and $81 per barrel, an area which we are now testing.  Should we see a break and hold above the upper level of this congested area then this should provide the necessary platform for a sustained attack at the $83.00 per barrel price handle where the previous rally stalled.  In today’s trading daily oil prices have continued their upwards momentum (despite poor crude oil inventory data), once again finding good support from the 40 day moving average and this upwards move is further confirmed by the 9 day moving average crossing above the 14 day.  With the 200 day moving average providing an excellent longer term barrier to any reversal we should see oil prices continue their upwards path in the next couple of weeks.

Today’s delayed crude oil inventory figures posted a further build of 3.1m barrels against a forecast of 1.8m; the gasoline stockpile rose by 1.7m barrels against a forecast of a rise of 1.5m barrels while distillates fell by 2.9m barrels whereas analysts were forecasting a fall of 1.5m.  Meantime the API data released yesterday reported a 100k barrel drop in crude, a 1.4m barrel increase in gasoline & an additional 1.3m barrels to the distillate stockpile.  Refining capacity was estimated at 79.9%.  The WTI contract closed yesterday’s session at $77.37 having traded between a high of $77.82 and low of $76.53.  Brent closed at $76.10 having traded between a high of $76.48 and low of $75.40.

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Oil Market News

Venezuela secures investment

BP’s licence to develop Siberian gas field under threat

Argentina threat to Falklands oil development