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Archive for March 2009

Futures Oil Prices – Daily Chart 31st March 2009

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Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Oil Prices - Daily Candle Chart For WTI 31st March 2009

Yesterday’s sell off in the price of crude oil has been attributed to the usual suspects, a sharp fall in the stock markets and a return to strength by the US dollar. However, from a technical perspective yesterday’s wide spread down bar which closed below the 14 day moving average merely confirmed the bearish engulfing signal that we saw on Friday as crude oil prices lost a further $3.25 to reach their lowest level in the last two weeks. With the 14 day moving average support having been breached, and crossing below the psychologically important $50.00 mark, this may accelerate any further downward move. The fact that the opening price of WTI oil was not far from the intra day high, is a further bearish signal. Having lost more than 10% in the last two days merely confirms the weakness of this rally since breaking out of the $33 – $50 range. Analysts also believe that crude oil prices could also suffer further downside pressure from ever increasing oil inventories as crude oil stocks continue to build. In addition this Thursday’s G20 meeting in London could also have a significant impact on both the dollar and equity markets which in turn will affect the price of crude.

The short and medium term trends are sideways and the long term trend now appears bearish.

WTI:

Support: $48.11 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $52.95 (high of 19/03/09)

Support: $46.93 (low of 18/03/09) Resistance: $51.93 (yesterday’s high)

Support: $46.54 (low of 17/03/09) Resistance: $50.47 (14 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $47.66 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $53.44 (high of 27/03/09)

Support: $46.31 (low of 05/01/09) Resistance: $52.21 (high of 06/01/09)

Support: $46.05 (low of 18/03 / 09) Resistance: $51.60 (yesterday’s high)

Futures Oil Prices Update – 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

After trading in a $48.11 to $52.35 range May Nymex light sweet crude settled down $3.97 at $48.41, having posted a high of $54.66 last Thursday. The front contract stalled just over $54 per barrel for 4 days in row (the highest levels seen since November 2008 when the front contract topped out at $55.98 and finished at $54.43). Today’s fall has been attributed to stock market tumble and traders taking profits from existing positions. See COT index for longer term sentiment.

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Daily Oil Prices – 30th March 2009

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Monday, March 30th, 2009

WTI Oil Prices - Daily Candle Chart 30th March 2009

Friday’s sharp decline in crude oil prices was hardly surprising given the twin weak fundamentals of slow global demand and oil stocks at more than a 15 year high’s. The move was not helped by a strengthening of the US dollar and later on, a drop in the equity markets, particularly the Dow Jones – all adding further downside pressure. This has resulted in a wide spread down bar on the day closing just below the 9 day moving average and providing a strong bearing engulfing signal which could see daily oil prices move lower over the next few days. With the strong support level now set below it will be interesting to see whether this area is breached. Looking ahead to this week’ s futures oil trading, the price of crude is expected to look for direction from both the stock markets and the US Dollar. Further guidance may also come from the Non Farm Payroll figures due out on Friday.

Friday’s down day, with a loss of 1.75 dollars settling at $52.35, in effect nullified last week’s gains. The move was significant enough to see the market briefly breaking below the 9 day moving average. Following this morning’s open we have seen oil prices fall, as expected, following the bearish signal on Friday, with the next support level at $50.17 which is the 14 day moving average. Despite the bullish picture, a trip to the downside should now also be considered.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support: $50.17 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $56.10 (high of 28/11/08)

Support: $49.53 (low of 19/03/09) Resistance: $54.25 (Friday’s high)

Support: $46.93 (low of 18/03/09) Resistance: $52.39 (9 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $51.17 (Friday’s low) Resistance: $54.90 (high of 28/11/08)

Support: $51.10 (low of 23/03/09) Resistance: $54.45 (high of 26/11/08)

Support: $49.74 (low of 20/03/09) Resistance: $53.44 (Friday’s high)

Daily Oil Prices – WTI Chart 27th March 2009

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Friday, March 27th, 2009

WTI Daily Oil Prices - Candle Chart 27th March 2009

In the face of a slight rebound in the US dollar, the advance in crude oil prices was supported by a further strengthening in the equity markets. Some ‘extra ammo’ definitely came from a bullish technical picture which possibly triggered institutional buying. Despite talks of a persistent weaker global demand, an increasing number of buyers seem to be coming back into the market ignoring fundamentals and rather focusing on a bullish chart. Ahead of the weekend the positioning of investors will show the market sentiment giving a better indication of the possible next direction in daily oil prices.

Slowly but surely the price of crude oil seems to be going higher helped by a bullish picture in which the 9, 14 and 40 day moving averages all point upwards. Yesterday’s trading session saw crude reaching a new high for this year at $54.75 gaining 92 cents for the day. The fact that crude oil was in positive territory for the whole day, with the low of the day as the opening price, suggests once more that currently the bulls have the upper hand, and we should see a move higher later today. However please remember that with the weekend ahead, a raft of economic news next week, and the G20 summit in London rounding off a busy seven days, the markets are now waiting and watching so we could see little activity today in the oil markets.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $53.00 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $56.10 (high of 28/11/08)

Support: $52.28 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $54.75 (yesterday’s high)

Support: $51.85 (high of 25/03/09) Resistance: $54.58 (low of 13/11/08)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $52.30 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $54.90 (high of 28/11/08)

Support: $51.17 (low of 25/03/09) Resistance: $54.45 (high of 26/11/08)

Support: $49.74 (low of 20/03/09) Resistance: $53.80 (yesterday’s high)

Oil Prices Today – 26th March 2009

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Thursday, March 26th, 2009

Crude oil prices came under pressure yesterday throughout the trading session with their decline being largely driven by the sell off in the equity markets. A comment from Treasury Sec Timothy Geithner saying that the US would be open to an expansion of the IMF Special Drawing Rights programme, initially sent the dollar tumbling which was actually overlooked by oil investors. The pressure on the price of crude was then increased with the release of the weekly EIA stats showing a larger than expected increase in crude inventories although moderate support was provided by larger than anticipated draws in gasoline and distillates.

From a technical perspective yesterday’s candle on the WTI oil chart ended the day as a doji with a down body and long shadows above and below, but closing well above all three moving averages. Overall, despite touching a recent high at $54.17 crude oil dropped 74 cents for the day in a 2.32 dollars range. Technically the chart still points upwards with crude managing so far to hold above the 33.00 – 50.00 sideways range, with the moving averages all bullish. The next major upside target is the high of 28/11/08 ($56.10). My suggested trade for today is to attempt small longs with a stop loss below the $51.20 region and to look for any buying opportunities in the hourly chart using the latest oil prices charts.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support: $51.85 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $56.10 (high of 28/11/08)

Support: $51.46 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $54.58 (low of 13/11/08)

Support: $50.49 (high of 06/01/09) Resistance: $54.17 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $51.17 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $53.86 (high of 23/03/09)

Support: $51.10 (low of 23/03/09) Resistance: $53.61 (high of 24/03/09)

Support: $49.74 (low of 20/03/09) Resistance: $53.39 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions bbls)

Crude +3.3 (+1.4) Gasoline -1.1 (-0.1) Distillate -1.6 (unch)

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Archive for March 2009

Futures Oil Prices – Daily Chart 31st March 2009

Futures Oil Prices Update – 30th March 2009

Daily Oil Prices – 30th March 2009

Daily Oil Prices – WTI Chart 27th March 2009

Oil Prices Today – 26th March 2009

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