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Archive for February 2009

Oil Trading News Update – 27th February 2009

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Friday, February 27th, 2009

More details of cuts in oil production as the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company confirmed that it would ship 17% less Upper Zakum crude than contracted for in April.  This will follow a 15% reduction in March.  OPEC is schedule to  reduce crude oil shipments by 1.7% in month ending 14th March.  OPEC members will load 22.8 million barrels a day in this period, down from 23.2 million a day in the month ended 14th February.

Despite these announcements crude oil fell in New York as signs that the global recession is deepening after Japan’s manufacturers’ cut production at a record level.  Japanese data confirmed that the world’s third largest consumer of crude oil is headed for its worst postwar recession.    Crude prices also fell on dollar strength.  The oversupply in the market, coupled with low demand, is unlikely to change in the coming months.

Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as $1.42 – over 3%, to $42.80 a barrel on NYMEX.  However, by 17.00 GMT spot WTI had regained some of these losses by trading at $43.76.


Categories : Oil Trading News
Tags : crude oil prices, daily oil price, futures oil trading, spot oil prices, trading oil futures, West Texas Intermediate, WTI oil price

Crude Oil Prices Today – 27th February 2009

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Friday, February 27th, 2009
Daily Oil Chart WTI - 27th February 2009

Daily Oil Chart WTI - 27th February 2009

Crude oil prices continued to head higher yesterday for the third day in a row gaining $2.08 or 5%. The rally begins to shape itself as indicated by the chart which now shows a price level well above all moving averages. As our upside target at $50.00 is very much in place one can argue that this game was played 3 times before since mid December so confirmation of a break above the mentioned level is also needed. As you can see I have added the key support and resistance lines to the chart today to indicate these areas, and until this target is reached then a sell off towards $33.22 cannot be discarded.

The short term trend is bullish while the medium and long term trends are bearish.

WTI:

Support: $42.50 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 27/01/09)

Support: $40.62 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $47.00 (high of 23/01/09)

Support: $39.39 (low of 25/02/09) Resistance: $45.30 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $44.15 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $48.42 (high of 09/02/09)

Support: $43.24 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 06/02/09)

Support: $42.23 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $46.63 (yesterday’s high)

Summary:

An increased optimism in the equities markets compared to the start of the week seems to spill over into energy complex. So daily oil prices pushed higher again following the bullish momentum after the release of DOE stats which showed a bigger than expected draw in gasoline stocks despite a global weaker demand. Prospects of reduced inflation and expectation from the US government that funds for future bank bailouts are sufficient brought optimism in crude market as well. Bulls are feeling increasingly hopeful awaiting that fast approaching OPEC meeting in mid March where more cuts are expected. My suggestion for today is to attempt small long positions with a stop loss below the low of two days ago at $39.60, but be careful as with the weekend approaching many traders will be squaring positions for Monday. Have a great weekend and I will be back bright and early Monday morning!


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : brent crude oil, crude oil, daily oil price, Daily Oil Prices, latest oil prices, oil price today, oil prices, oil prices daily, oil prices today, spot oil prices, trading oil futures, West Texas

Crude Oil Prices Rise – February 26th 2009

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Thursday, February 26th, 2009
WTI Oil Price Chart - Daily Candle 26th February 2009

WTI Oil Price Chart - Daily Candle 26th February 2009

After the crossover between the 9 and 14 day moving average we had another bullish signal yesterday with crude oil prices breaking and holding above the 40 day moving average. The move was significant as oil gained in excess of 2 dollars in a range of $3.43. If the rally continues we are looking at the upside target around $50.00 level but at the same time a decline towards $33.22 mark should also be taken into consideration.

The short term trend is bullish while the medium and long term trends are bearish.

WTI:

Support: $40.57 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $44.41 (high of 21/01/09)

Support: $39.39 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $43.44 (high of 30/01/09)

Support: $38.77 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $42.82 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $43.14 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $48.42 (high of 09/02/09)

Support: $42.08 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $46.50 (high of 13/02/09)

Support: $41.85 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $44.72 (40 day moving average)

Summary:

The strong advance in crude oil yesterday was assisted by the EIA reports, the data showing a sizable 3.4 mb draw in gasoline stocks a decline compared with industry’s estimates of a roughly unchanged supply. As the market keeps digesting President Obama’s speech, assessing what further actions to expect from Congress it seems that equities markets attempt to stabilize shifting the focus away from the demand deterioration. In the meantime speculations about additional OPEC production cuts are increasingly mentioned in the media which could support further rallies in crude oil price today.

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions bbls)

Crude +0.7 (+0.3) Gasoline -3.4 (-0.1) Distillate +0.8 (-1.4)


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : Brent Crude, crude oil price, crude oil prices, current oil price, daily oil news, futures oil trading, light sweed crude, Oil Futures, oil futures trading, oil news, oil prices daily, spot oil, spot oil price, spot oil prices, today's oil price, trading oil futures, West Texas Intermediate

Oil Inventories Continue To Increase – 25th February 2009

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Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

Oil inventory figures released earlier today show stockpile continues to grow.  US Crude Oil Stks +700,000 Bbls In Wk.   Stockpiles of oil and, in particular in floating storage, started in earnest towards the end of last year as the fall in global demand began to bite.  This accelerated the disparity between the spot oil and futures oil price and triggered what is known as a contango or forwardation.   The ease with which it is now possible to store oil in VLCCs (very large crude carriers) has prompted investors and hedge funds to become involved in a search for better return.      In a contango price structure, near term contracts trade at a discount to those for months further in the future.  If storage costs are low enough, the price structure allows traders to make a good return by buying crude in the spot market and then selling it at a pre-agreed price in the future.


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : futures oil trading, oil futures trading, Oil Trading News, spot oil prices, trading oil futures

Spot Oil Prices Still Uncertain – 25th February 2009

By admin · Comments (0)
Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

Cot data for oil is still indeterminate and simply reflects OPEC’s failure to boost the price of oil with production cuts.   OPEC’s efforts to raise the oil price have been thwarted, not only by the global downturn, but also by the sheer volume of oil in storage and, in particular, oil stored in floating VLCCs (very large crude carriers).   Oil from these carriers is usually released onto the market when daily oil prices rise.   Such moves have, so far, only managed to push the price back down again.  Michael Whittner, head of global oil markets at Societe Generale has said: “Whenever you see a bit of firming in the physical market, some of that (stored) physical crude is sold to the market which softens up the physical market again.”

The scale of the problem can be seen in Europe which currently has almost 20 million barrels of North Sea crude stored in supertankers and kept a lid on the North Sea crude benchmark price.  Michael Wittner calls this “the seasaw, or accordian effect from floating storage” and it “…is something OPEC’s cuts will have to fight.  Eventually the OPEC cuts will succeed in lifting oil prices, but this may take longer than anticipated and will be exacerbated by poor global demand.

We need to wait for the inventory figures this afternoon to see if this morning’s rebound to $40 will hold.  This rebound has been attributed to this morning’s positive equity market.


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : Add new tag, Brent Crude, crude oil prices, crude oil trading, futures oil trading, oil futures trading
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