Archive for January 2009

Daily Crude Oil Prices – January 30th 2009

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Friday, January 30th, 2009
Daily Crude Oil Prices Chart - Candle Chart WTI January 30th 2009

Daily Crude Oil Prices Chart - Candle Chart WTI January 30th 2009

Moving averages are still congested re-enforcing the sideways nature of the crude oil market at present.  After making new short term lows and failing to “follow through”, the 40 day moving average acted as strong resistance to daily oil prices which then fell back into the middle of the days range. The smaller daily ranges seen recently are unlikely to indicate a drop in volatility going forward and could act as a “coiled spring” ahead of the next big move. A break of the 9 and 40 day moving averages will point to a target around $50 and failure to hold support could quickly take WTI back down to $35.

The short term trend is sideways, while the medium and the long term trends are bearish.

WTI( WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE):

Support:    $41.41 (low of 27/01/09)                              Resistance: $47.48 (high of 27/01/09)

Support:    $40.17 (yesterdays low)                               Resistance: $45.08 (high of 22/01/09)

Support:    $39.08 (low of 20/01/09)                              Resistance: $42.43 (40 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT CRUDE):

Support:    $44.00 (yesterdays low)                                Resistance: $48.40 (high of 27/01/09)

Support:    $42.85 (low of 21/01/09)                               Resistance: $47.36 (high of 15/12/08)

Support:    $41.84 (low of 13/01/09)                               Resistance: $46.06 (yesterdays high)

Summary:

Another quiet day saw a trading range of just over $2 in WTI oil prices, highlighting the “uncertainty” of traders mentioned in yesterdays report. There was little news to affect the markets yesterday, but the main driver appears to have been the weaker Dow and gloomy economic outlook, yet again bringing demand woes to the fore. Interestingly WTI faired far worse than its European counterpart Brent (the “arbitrage” moved by around a dollar), with fears of further stock increases in the US weighing heavily. Squaring of positions ahead of the weekend may cause volatility later on today giving further ideas of sentiment and direction for crude oil prices today.


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : Brent Crude, crude oil prices today, current oil price, daily crude oil prices, Daily Oil Prices, January oil prices, oil prices daily, West Texas, West Texas Intermediate, WTI oil price, WTI prices

Crude Oil Prices Today – Daily News January 29th 2009

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Thursday, January 29th, 2009
Crude Oil Prices Today - Candle Chart January 29th 2009

For daily oil prices, the moving averages are converging and current price activity is within this band indicating projected sideways movement. However sideways in current market conditions can often be within a large daily trading range of $5 plus. There is good support below around the $40 region but due to the large contango seen of late, if this psychological level is broken there is plenty of “fresh air” on the way to $35. On the upside if crude oil prices can trade above Tuesdays high, the $50 target will come into play very quickly but will take a good level of momentum to push through this technical and psychological resistance. It is interesting to note that in the last three days we have seen a classic reversal pattern in the short term, an up bar, followed by a shooting star candle, and the down bar of yesterday. Based on this formation I would expect to see daily oil prices fall in the next few days.

The short term trend is sideways, while the medium and the long term trends are bearish.

WTI( West Texas Intermediate)

Support:    $41.41 (low of 27/01/09)                              Resistance: $47.48 (high of 27/01/09)

Support:    $40.60 (yesterdays low)                               Resistance: $45.08 (high of 22/01/09)

Support:    $39.08 (low of 20/01/09)                              Resistance: $42.61 (40 day moving average)

OIL (Brent Crude Oil):

Support:    $43.76 (yesterdays low)                                Resistance: $48.40 (high of 27/01/09)

Support:    $42.85 (low of 21/01/09)                               Resistance: $47.36 (high of 15/12/08)

Support:    $41.84 (low of 13/01/09)                               Resistance: $46.19 (yesterdays high)

Summary:

In a relatively “tame” trading day WTI managed to trade within a $3.00 range. This is surprising considering inventory figures were released along with the fed’s interest rate decision. The crude stock figures were once again very bearish building in excess of 6m barrels and the market held up relatively well after an initial drop down toward $40. As I explained yesterday, the reaction to this weeks inventories would be key and judging by the lack of movement it appears that traders are very wary and uncertain at these levels and are awaiting fresh fundamental indicators.

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions bbls)

Crude    +6.2 (+3.0)      Gasoline -0.1 (+1.6)     Distillate -1.0 (-1.1)


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : Brent Crude, brent crude oil, crude oil price, crude oil prices, daily oil price, Daily Oil Prices, January oil prices, oil prices daily, oil prices today, spot oil prices, West Texas Intermediate

Crude Oil Prices Today – 28th January 2009

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Wednesday, January 28th, 2009
Crude Oil Prices Today - Daily Chart January 28th 2009

A failure to make new highs on the back of a weak close on Monday appeared to have spooked the longs causing a drop of around $6.00, but  crude oil prices today are marginally up in early trading . The 40 day moving average was broken convincingly, however good support was found at the 9 and 14 day. On a break of these shorter term moving averages the technical picture will point to a test of the lows of early last week at just above $39.00 and in the volatile market conditions we are experiencing currently, $50 is not really too far away on the upside if the buyers return.

The short term trend is sideways, while the medium and the long term trends are bearish.

WTI ( West Texas Intermediate):

Support:    $41.41 (yesterdays low)                                     Resistance: $47.48 (yesterdays high)

Support:    $41.19 (9 day moving average)                               Resistance: $45.08 (high of 22/01/09)

Support:    $39.08 (low of 20/01/09)                                    Resistance: $42.90 (40 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $43.55 (yesterdays low)                                     Resistance: $48.40 (yesterdays high)

Support:    $42.85 (low of 21/01/09)                                    Resistance: $47.36 (high of 15/12/08)

Support:    $41.84 (low of 13/01/09)                                    Resistance: $45.28 (40 day moving average)

Summary:

Profit taking was the order of the day in yesterdays oil trading, resulting in a down move of a shade over six bucks (the largest since 7th Jan). The dollar weakened placing some pressure on daily oil prices, but not too much emphasis can be placed on this as the currency correlation has deteriorated of late. The reaction to the DOE stock figures this afternoon will be key with further builds in crude stocks predicted. If bearish figures are published another discounting of these in the market will add weight to the short term recovery oil is experiencing at the moment for daily oil prices.

DOE Stock Estimates (change in millions bbls)

Crude    +3.0      Gasoline  +1.6     Distillate  -1.1


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : Brent Crude, brent crude oil, crude oil price today, crude oil prices today, Daily Oil Prices, Oil Futures, oil price January, oil prices, oil prices daily, spot oil, spot oil price, today's oil price, WTI oil price, WTI price

Crude Oil Prices Today – January 26th 2009

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Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

Crude oil prices today fell as fundamental data released today highlighted a fragile economy with consumer confidence reaching a record low. The CB consumer confidence figures released  this morning came in at 37.7, against a forecast of 38.7 and a previous of 38.6, setting a new record low for the index, and surpassing the previous record low of a month ago. On release of the data,  the March futures contracts for light sweet crude on NYMEX lost $2.40 per barrel, falling to $43.30 a barrel before recovering slightly in later trading. The CB consumer index is a leading indicator which uses a survey of 5000 households to gauge consumer confidence and as such provides an early indicator of end user sentiment in the broad economy. With such low confidence both in industry and in the consumer market, demand for oil is falling continously, whilst suppliers and producers stockpile wherever possible, in the hope of higher oil prices in the future.


Categories : Oil Trading News
Tags : crude oil prices, crude oil prices today, daily oil price, Daily Oil Prices, oil prices daily

Daily Oil Price – January 27th 2009

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Tuesday, January 27th, 2009
WTI Daily Crude Oil Prices - January 27th 2009

WTI Daily Crude Oil Prices - January 27th 2009

Fresh technical buying ensued yesterday taking WTI daily oil prices to new short term highs due to the chart strength mentioned in yesterdays post before retracing back to previous days levels. With the 9 day moving average approaching the 14 potentially giving an additional buy signal, and the current price activity still above the 40 day, the patterns are giving plenty of support to the bulls for daily crude oil prices moving forward. There is a possibility however of further retracement down to the 40 day moving average whilst still maintaining the bullish short term view.

The short term trend is up while the medium and the long term trends are bearish.

WTI  ( West Texas Intermediate):

Support:    $45.08 (high of 22/01/09)                                   Resistance: $50.04 (high of 15/12/08)

Support:    $43.22 (40 day moving average)                              Resistance: $49.06 (high of 07/01/09)

Support:    $41.40 (low of 23/01/09)                                    Resistance: $48.58 (yesterdays high)

OIL (Brent Crude Oil London):

Support:    $46.64 (high of 22/01/09)                                    Resistance: $49.96 (high of 15/12/08)

Support:    $45.43 (9 day moving average)                                Resistance: $49.65 (yesterdays high)

Support:    $44.65 (40 day moving average)                               Resistance: $48.61 (high of 23/01/09)

Summary:

In a market fairly devoid of any major direct fundamental news the sentiment appears to have changed for the time being for crude oil prices. Fresh highs were made with the help of a weaker dollar and stronger equity markets but these correlations of late have been very fragile and it appears that traders are happier to enter (somewhat tentatively) into long positions on oil again. The $80 plus move in gold may also have provided confidence to the longs with oil also holding a safe haven status premium in traders minds.


Categories : Daily Oil Prices
Tags : Brent Crude, crude oil prices, daily oil price, Daily Oil Prices, latest oil prices, oil prices daily, oil prices january, price crude oil, price of oil, West Texas Intermediate, WTI price, WTI prices
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